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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
LILI CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DATA. LILI APPEARS TO HAVE JUST
COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BASED ON THE LAST 2 RECON
PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE EYE
HAS CLEARED OUT AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE
INCREASING FROM -55C TO -9C JUST DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS. THE
PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON
DROPSONDE WINDS OF 101 KT OVER A DEEP LAYER BETWEEN 963 MB AND 850
MB...COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AND DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KT...OR T5.5...FROM TAFB AND
AFWA. WIND RADII WERE ALSO INCREASED BASED ON 00Z SURFACE REPORTS
AND METICULOUS ANALYSES FROM THE AOML/HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/13. THE LAST 4 RECON FIXES INDICATE
LILI HAS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO MADE A SIMILAR SHIFT
TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND
THEN SHIFTS TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS. THIS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK JUST SIMPLY ROUNDS OUT
THE TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 36 HOURS.
THIS SCENARIO IS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE APPROACHING DEEP MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY PACKED AND STRONGLY AGREE ON A
LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 42
HOURS. OF COURSE... JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF LILI CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA...AND A WOBBLE
TO THE EAST WOULD TAKE THE POWERFUL HURRICANE CLOSER TO THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE...WHILE THE
INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THE EYE CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
LILI ALREADY HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE AND NOW THAT
THE EYEWALL HAS DECREASED FROM 35 NMI DOWN TO 17 NMI... SOME
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SHORTLY AND CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE AND EVEN PROBABLE THAT LILI
COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT AROUND 110 KT BETWEEN THE 12 AND
24 HOURS TIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT. THIS
INTENSITY SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE LILI WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT
MAKES LANDFALL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 23.3N 86.3W 90 KTS
12HR VT 02/1200Z 24.4N 88.3W 100 KTS
24HR VT 03/0000Z 26.1N 90.7W 105 KTS
36HR VT 03/1200Z 28.0N 92.2W 105 KTS
48HR VT 04/0000Z 30.5N 92.7W 70 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 05/0000Z 37.0N 88.5W 25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
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