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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002
AFTER SPUTTERING A BIT THIS MORNING...LILI HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SATELLITE
APPEARANCE...COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS...AND MUCH BETTER EYE
DEFINITION ON THE CASABLANCA CUBA AND KEY WEST RADARS. THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 102 KT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE EYE WHILE LILI
WAS OVER CUBA. BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
90 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 90 KT.
LILI HAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THE MOTION IS NOW 305/13. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR 28N94W. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE NEAR 24N94W. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
LILI ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FORECAST NEITHER THE NEW ORLEANS OR HOUSTON/
GALVESTON AREAS ARE OUT OF DANGER. THUS...WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF COASTS.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND THE INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...LILI SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY
STRENGTHEN. ONE PUZZLING NOTE ABOUT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS THAT
IN THIS WARM-WATER LOW-SHEAR SITUATION NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE MODELS STRENGTHEN LILI PAST 101 KT. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
REASONS FOR THIS CAP ON INTENSITY...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CALL FOR A 105 KT PEAK BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO
SURPRISE IF LILI EXCEEDED THE CURRENT FORECAST INTENSITIES.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.7N 85.0W 90 KTS
12HR VT 02/0600Z 24.0N 87.0W 95 KTS
24HR VT 02/1800Z 25.6N 89.5W 100 KTS
36HR VT 03/0600Z 27.4N 91.5W 105 KTS
48HR VT 03/1800Z 29.5N 93.0W 105 KTS
72HR VT 04/1800Z 35.5N 91.5W 35 KTS...INLAND
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