[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002
 
AFTER SPUTTERING A BIT THIS MORNING...LILI HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT 
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SATELLITE 
APPEARANCE...COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS...AND MUCH BETTER EYE 
DEFINITION ON THE CASABLANCA CUBA AND KEY WEST RADARS.  THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 102 KT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE EYE WHILE LILI
WAS OVER CUBA.  BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
90 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 90 KT.
 
LILI HAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THE MOTION IS NOW 305/13.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR 28N94W.  BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS 
OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE NEAR 24N94W.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP 
LILI ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 
36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  
NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH 
THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN 
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE 
RIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION.  GIVEN THE 
UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FORECAST NEITHER THE NEW ORLEANS OR HOUSTON/ 
GALVESTON AREAS ARE OUT OF DANGER.  THUS...WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF COASTS.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND THE INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...LILI SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY
STRENGTHEN.  ONE PUZZLING NOTE ABOUT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS THAT
IN THIS WARM-WATER LOW-SHEAR SITUATION NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE MODELS STRENGTHEN LILI PAST 101 KT.  THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS
REASONS FOR THIS CAP ON INTENSITY...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CALL FOR A 105 KT PEAK BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO
SURPRISE IF LILI EXCEEDED THE CURRENT FORECAST INTENSITIES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 22.7N  85.0W    90 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N  87.0W    95 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 25.6N  89.5W   100 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 27.4N  91.5W   105 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 29.5N  93.0W   105 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 35.5N  91.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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