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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002

THE LATEST REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INDICATE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 87 KT AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 971 MB.  BASED ON THIS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED
TO 80 KT.  ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT BOTH THE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR
DATA FROM CUBA SHOW A DECAY OF THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST
FEW HR...WITH THE AIRCRAFT REPORTING LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF AN
EYEWALL ON THE MOST RECENT PASS.  THIS HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME 
WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE TOPS.  MOST LIKELY THIS IS DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION...AS THERE IS NO OBVIOUS METEOROLOGICAL REASON FOR THE
HURRICANE TO PEAK OR WEAKEN RIGHT NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN 
FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR
28N93W.  BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
NEAR 24N93W.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP LILI ON A GENERAL WEST- 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HR FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS 
SCENARIO...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 60 HR.
IT IS NOTABLE THOUGH THAT THE AVN/GFS AND THE AVN ENSEMBLES CALL
FOR A TRACK MORE TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WHILE THE UKMET
AND NOGAPS CALL FOR A TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE AND
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FORECAST
NEITHER THE NEW ORLEANS OR HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREAS ARE OUT OF 
DANGER.
 
LILI CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW AND IS PASSING OVER WARM WATER.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED EYEWALL STRUCTURE
DOES NOT SUGGEST IMMEDIATE RAPID STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL INSTEAD CALL FOR CONTINUED STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC BEYOND
THAT TIME.  WHILE THE NORTHERN GULF HAS COOLED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF HANNA AND ISIDORE...IT STILL APPEARS TO BE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A HURRICANE OF 105 KT OR STRONGER.  DESPITE THIS...NONE
OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS LILI PAST 105 KT. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL RESPOND TO THIS BY KEEPING THE INTENSITY 
AT 105 KT UNTIL LANDFALL...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LILI 
COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AT LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 21.8N  83.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.8N  85.6W    90 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 24.3N  88.2W   100 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 26.0N  90.5W   105 KTS
48HR VT     03/1200Z 28.1N  92.2W   105 KTS
72HR VT     04/1200Z 33.0N  92.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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