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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECON INTO LILI...AT 0507Z...HAD A 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 83 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THIS GIVES A
SURFACE WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 75 KT. THIS VALUE IS USED FOR THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
STRENGTHENED A BIT MORE BY NOW. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
FINDS IN A FEW HOURS. LILI EXHIBITS A SYMMETRICAL CDO PATTERN ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGES WITH ONLY HINTS OF BANDING FEATURES...HOWEVER SSM/I
AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVE RAIN BAND STRUCTURE.
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA. THE LAND MASSES OF THE
ISLE OF PINES AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE
SIGNIFICANT IMPEDIMENTS TO THE DEEPENING PROCESS...AND FOUR OUT OF
THE FIVE PREDICTORS OF THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST SCHEME ARE
SATISFIED AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONES...AND SHOWS LILI STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM THE SHIPS INTENSITY PREDICTION
MODEL.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...295/11...WHICH WAS ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECASTS
FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE LILI TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO AN
INCREASED HEIGHT GRADIENT IN 1-2 DAYS. CAVEAT...ALTHOUGH THE NHC
FORECAST SHOWS A LANDFALL POINT IN A LITTLE LESS THAN 72 H...ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
LANDFALL SINCE THE ERRORS ARE TYPICALLY OVER 200 MILES FOR A 72 H
FORECAST.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 21.3N 82.7W 75 KTS
12HR VT 01/1800Z 22.2N 84.5W 85 KTS
24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.4N 86.9W 95 KTS
36HR VT 02/1800Z 25.0N 89.5W 100 KTS
48HR VT 03/0600Z 26.7N 91.7W 105 KTS
72HR VT 04/0600Z 31.0N 93.0W 50 KTS...INLAND
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