[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
 
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS STILL DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT HURRICANE
INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORT 
INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STILL FALLING.  ANOTHER 
DROPSONDE...THIS ONE FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT AT 1835 Z... 
REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 KT.  THE NOAA AIRCRAFT...WHICH HAS JUST 
BEGUN ITS MISSION...HAS ALREADY REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 KT FROM 
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. GIVEN THE PRESSURE 
FALL...I WILL ASSUME THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN RECENTLY 
SAMPLED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.  THE 
OVERALL APPEARANCE OF LILI HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 
24 HOURS...WITH AN EXPANDING CLOUD PATTERN WITH GOOD BANDING 
FEATURES.  OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. THERE IS NO 
CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE 
FOR LILI TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/9...AND THIS HEADING HAS BEEN QUITE
CONSTANT FOR THE LAST 18 HOURS.  THE BASIC STEERING FLOW FOR
LILI IS BEING PROVIDED BY A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE THREE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS ANTICYCLONE
SHOULD MAINTAIN LILI ON A RELATIVELY STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FOCUSES THE
ULTIMATE THREAT TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE
IS EXTREMELY WELL CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY 
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 20.1N  80.7W    70 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 20.9N  81.8W    75 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 22.0N  84.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N  86.4W    90 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 24.5N  89.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 27.5N  93.0W   105 KTS
 
 
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