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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002
 
THE SHORT TERM INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/4...BASED ON 
AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO.  THE FORECAST 
TRACK IS BASED ON A CONTINUED MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED NEAR 30N80W.  THIS 
RESULTS IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS.

A RECENT GPS DROP FROM THE AIRCRAFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER 
SHOWED WINDS IN THE 70 KNOT RANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH 
REDUCES TO ABOUT 55 KNOTS FOR A SURFACE WIND.  MOST FACTORS FAVOR 
INTENSIFICATION.  AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS A CLOSED EYE WALL FEATURE 
20 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THE ONLY NEGATIVE IS THAT THE DEEPEST 
CONVECTION IS NOT TOO WELL ORGANIZED BUT THIS COULD CHANGE QUICKLY.  
THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS THE 
WIND SPEED TO AN AGGRESSIVE 90 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS WHEN LILI IS 
FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE 
SHIPS MODEL WITHOUT LAND EFFECTS IS TO 95 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  AS 
ALWAYS WITH INTENSITY FORECASTS...I AM FULLY PREPARED TO BE WRONG IN 
EITHER DIRECTION.    
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 19.2N  78.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 19.9N  79.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N  81.6W    65 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 22.4N  84.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.9N  86.3W    80 KTS
72HR VT     03/0000Z 27.0N  90.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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