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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...LILI SHOWS SOME BANDING FEATURES BUT
THE ENHANCED IR PRESENTATION IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH RAGGED-LOOKING
DEEP CONVECTION AND GENERALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CYCLONE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE
INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASS OF
EASTERN CUBA COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. THE SIERRA MAESTRA
RANGE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA HAS PEAKS IN EXCESS OF
6000 FT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PRESUMES THAT THE CENTER
WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER WATER...AND THEREFORE SHOWS SLOW
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MORNING...THE CENTER REFORMED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS
PREVIOUS LOCATION. HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
NORTHWESTWARD...320/3. THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM IS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IN
PARTICULAR THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS...HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW ADVISORIES...AND ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/2100Z 18.6N 75.8W 45 KTS
12HR VT 29/0600Z 19.3N 76.5W 50 KTS
24HR VT 29/1800Z 20.2N 77.7W 55 KTS
36HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 79.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 80.5W 65 KTS
72HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 83.5W 70 KTS
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