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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002

AFTER FINDING A GOOD CENTER AROUND 06Z...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS 
INDICATED A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER NEAR THE PREVIOUS LOCATION...AND 
RECENT DATA SUGGESTS A NEW CENTER MAY BE REFORMING TO THE NORTHEAST 
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IF THIS IS CONFIRMED THEN SOME RELOCATION 
WILL BE NECESSARY.  FOR THE TIME BEING THE INITIAL POSITION AND 
SHORT-TERM FORECAST TRACK ARE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE 
PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST 
SYSTEMS 12-24 HOUR FORECAST SHOWED A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
JOG...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  A 
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE 
NORTH OF LILI. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS 
ONES...TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE 
OF DAYS.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN 
TRACK.

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH EVIDENCE OF 
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE 
CIRRUS MOTIONS...THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED.  THEREFORE ONLY 
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...AND THIS MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY 
INTERACTION WITH LAND...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF 
EASTERN CUBA.

BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR 
LILI TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 18.1N  75.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 18.7N  76.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N  77.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 20.7N  78.3W    60 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 21.3N  79.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 22.5N  82.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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