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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE AREA AND FOUND A VERY
WELL DEFINED AND TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
OF 51 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 999 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE INDICATE THAT THE
OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING AND THE AREA OF COVERAGE HAS INCREASED BUT THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF TWO SHAPELESS BLOBS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. DESPITE THE GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND WARM OCEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS INDICATED IN THE NEAR
TERM WHILE THE CIRCULATION OF LILI INTERACTS WITH JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM
THERE...STREGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MAKE LILI A
STRONG HURRICANE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
LILI HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE FORECAST
TRACK FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
MEANDERING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA FOR A DAY OR SO. A
RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY. THIS PATTERN WOULD
STEER LILI MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BEYOND 36
HOURS. DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR TO THE NORTH LILI MOVES INITIALLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WOULD MAKE THE WESTWARD TURN EITHER
NORTH OF CUBA OR SOUTH OF CUBA. ONLY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL AND ITS
DERIVATIVES FORECAST LILI TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG OR NEAR THE
NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THEN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REST OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE SAME TREND BUT KEEP LILI SOUTH OF CUBA AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
IT IS LIKE THE OLD SAYING THAT ALL ROADS LEAD TO ROME...WELL...ALL
MODELS LEAD LILI TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 17.8N 75.7W 45 KTS
12HR VT 28/1800Z 18.6N 76.1W 45 KTS
24HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 77.0W 55 KTS
36HR VT 29/1800Z 20.5N 78.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 79.1W 65 KTS
72HR VT 01/0600Z 22.0N 82.0W 75 KTS
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