[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE AREA AND FOUND A VERY
WELL DEFINED AND TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
OF 51 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 999 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE INDICATE THAT THE
OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING AND THE AREA OF COVERAGE HAS INCREASED BUT THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF TWO SHAPELESS BLOBS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. DESPITE THE GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND WARM OCEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS INDICATED IN THE NEAR
TERM WHILE THE CIRCULATION OF LILI INTERACTS WITH JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA.  ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM
THERE...STREGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN.  BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MAKE LILI A
STRONG HURRICANE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
 
LILI HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE FORECAST 
TRACK FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STEERING 
CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE 
MEANDERING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA FOR A DAY OR SO. A 
RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES 
AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY. THIS PATTERN WOULD 
STEER LILI MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BEYOND 36 
HOURS. DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR TO THE NORTH LILI MOVES INITIALLY 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WOULD MAKE THE WESTWARD TURN EITHER 
NORTH OF CUBA OR SOUTH OF CUBA. ONLY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL AND ITS 
DERIVATIVES FORECAST LILI TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG OR NEAR THE 
NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THEN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REST OF THE 
MODELS SHOW THE SAME TREND BUT KEEP LILI SOUTH OF CUBA AND SO DOES 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

IT IS LIKE THE OLD SAYING THAT ALL ROADS LEAD TO ROME...WELL...ALL 
MODELS LEAD LILI TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 17.8N  75.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.6N  76.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N  77.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N  78.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N  79.1W    65 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 22.0N  82.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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