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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT THE
CENTER OF LILI JUMPED A COUPLE OF TIMES TODAY...FIRST TO THE NORTH
AND THEN BACK TO THE WEST.  THE PLANE MEASURED 48 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.  BASED ON THIS
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 40 KT...WHICH GOES WILL WITH
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT FROM
SAB..AFWA...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS DISAPPEARED INTO THE OVERCAST CREATED BY
PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE CENTER JUMPS CONTINUE TO MAKE THE INITIAL MOTION RATHER
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE 305/6.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF LILI...AND
LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER TIME
WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN 12-36 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
LILI TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY MOTION DURING THE TIME THE RIDGE IS AT ITS WEAKEST.  NHC
TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AS GOOD OF AGREEMENT AS EARLIER...AS
SEVERAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE MOST NOTABLE SHIFTS WERE TO THE GFS/AVN AND THE AVN ENSEMBLE
MEANS...WHICH MOVED LILI NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BEFORE
TURNING THE STORM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UP THE LENGTH OF THE ISLAND.
OTHER MODELS CALL FOR LILI TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA AND THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ALONG THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE MAIN BODY OF GUIDANCE BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE
RIGHT-OUTLYING AVN AND AVN ENSEMBLES.  NOTE THAT SOME ADDITIONAL
ERRATIC MOTION COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE BROAD CENTER BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED.
 
THE OUTFLOW OF LILI CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
EVIDENCE OF SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW.  CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORM.  A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL SHEAR...
INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION
SHOULD SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR.  AFTER
THAT...LILI SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 16.9N  75.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 17.8N  76.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 18.8N  76.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 19.6N  77.8W    50 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 20.4N  79.1W    60 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N  81.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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