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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LILI HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH THE FORMATION OF A DENSE OVERCAST AND SOME
EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURES OF 1003 AND 1005 MB...ALONG
WITH 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 80 N MI NORTHEAST AND 45 N MI
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THUS...LILI HAS RE-GAINED TROPICAL STORM
STATUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST...BUT IS ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE.  THIS
SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING LILI.

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE CENTER IS FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/6. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF LILI...AND
LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER TIME
WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN 12-36 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
LILI TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY MOTION DURING THE TIME THE RIDGE IS AT ITS WEAKEST.  NHC
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  INDEED...
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS LILI ALMOST DUE WEST AFTER 48 HR.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW QUITE AS SHARP OF A TURN AT THIS
TIME...CALLING FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 36 HR 
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS TRACK IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/AVN MODEL.  SOME ERRATIC MOTION
COULD OCCUR TODAY AS THE BROAD CENTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.
 
WHILE LILI STILLS SHOWS SIGNS OF BEING SHEARED...IT IS DEVELOPING
OUTFLOW TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST TIME.  THIS IS A SIGN THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FINALLY BECOMING FAVORABLE AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF LILI IS MOVING WESTWARD
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE STORM...AND THIS IS ALLOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHEAR TO DEVELOP OVER THE STORM.
A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL SHEAR...INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA...AND
INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION SHOULD SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
FIRST 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...LILI SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 16.3N  74.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 16.8N  75.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 17.9N  76.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 18.8N  77.9W    45 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N  78.9W    55 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N  80.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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