[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT LILI IS A TROPICAL
STORM.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS UNTIL A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS.  AS SUGGESTED
BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE SHEAR HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
DECREASING AND UNANIMOUSLY...ALL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER LILI.  THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED
WITH THE HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OR HIGH OCTANE FUEL WHICH
PREVAILS OVER THE OCEAN SOUTH OF CUBA...WOULD PROVIDE A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS MAKE LILI A POWERFUL HURRICANE SOUTH OF
CUBA...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER.

LILI HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS.  THIS
MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN THE PROCESS OF
REFORMATION AND THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  HOWEVER...LILI
SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND WILL LIKELY BE MEANDERING
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 72
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FROM
THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS
PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH ON AVERAGE SHOW ANOTHER STRONG HURRICANE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF TROUBLE IN THE HORIZON.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 16.1N  75.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N  76.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 17.5N  77.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 18.5N  78.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N  79.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N  80.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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