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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002
 
IT HAS BEEN ALMOST 48 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN ABLE TO SEND 
A VORTEX MESSAGE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE 
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LILI IS A BROAD...ELONGATED AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION OR MINIMUM 
PRESSURE.  THEREFORE LILI IS NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO 
ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW 
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED POCKETS OF WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  
THIS FORMALLY REQUIRES THE LOWERING OF THE TROPICAL STORM 
WATCHES...HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE 
REMNANTS OF LILI WILL REGENERATE...ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND 
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS 
OF THIS SYSTEM...THROUGH HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AND THE TROPICAL 
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BECAUSE OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION...FORECAST POSITIONS ARE 
GIVEN BELOW.    
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 15.2N  72.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N  73.9W    30 KTS...BROAD REMNANT LOW
24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.9N  75.4W    30 KTS...BROAD REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N  77.0W    35 KTS...REGENERATING
48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N  78.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N  82.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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