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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002
IT HAS BEEN ALMOST 48 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN ABLE TO SEND
A VORTEX MESSAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LILI IS A BROAD...ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION OR MINIMUM
PRESSURE. THEREFORE LILI IS NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO
ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED POCKETS OF WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
THIS FORMALLY REQUIRES THE LOWERING OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES...HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE
REMNANTS OF LILI WILL REGENERATE...ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM...THROUGH HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AND THE TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
BECAUSE OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION...FORECAST POSITIONS ARE
GIVEN BELOW.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 15.2N 72.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 27/0000Z 15.9N 73.9W 30 KTS...BROAD REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 27/1200Z 16.9N 75.4W 30 KTS...BROAD REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.0N 77.0W 35 KTS...REGENERATING
48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.0N 78.5W 35 KTS
72HR VT 29/1200Z 20.0N 82.0W 40 KTS
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