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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002
 
LILI CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY RAGGED IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE PHOTOS. 
THE TOTAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST SIX 
HOURS.  QUIK SCAT WINDS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAST RECON SUGGEST 
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSFORMING BACK TO A WAVE.  WE WILL KEEP 
LILI AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS PACKAGE AND WAIT FOR THE VISIBLE 
PICTURES AND EARLY MORNING RECON BEFORE ANY CHANGES ARE MADE.  IF IT 
IS A WAVE ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON THE NEXT 
PACKAGE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/05.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A WAVE IT 
SHOULD BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD AND WOULD HAVE AN OPPOTUNITY TO 
RE-DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY 
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND OF SEVERAL OF THE 
GLOBAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 14.5N  70.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N  71.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.7N  73.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.6N  74.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 17.8N  76.1W    35 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N  78.9W    40 KTS
 
 
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