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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002
LILI CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY RAGGED IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE PHOTOS.
THE TOTAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS. QUIK SCAT WINDS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAST RECON SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSFORMING BACK TO A WAVE. WE WILL KEEP
LILI AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS PACKAGE AND WAIT FOR THE VISIBLE
PICTURES AND EARLY MORNING RECON BEFORE ANY CHANGES ARE MADE. IF IT
IS A WAVE ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON THE NEXT
PACKAGE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/05. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A WAVE IT
SHOULD BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD AND WOULD HAVE AN OPPOTUNITY TO
RE-DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND OF SEVERAL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 14.5N 70.8W 35 KTS
12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 71.8W 35 KTS
24HR VT 27/0600Z 15.7N 73.2W 35 KTS
36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.6N 74.7W 35 KTS
48HR VT 28/0600Z 17.8N 76.1W 35 KTS
72HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 78.9W 40 KTS
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