[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002

LILI LOOKS VERY RAGGED IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE PHOTOS.  TOPS HAVE 
BEEN WARMING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE WEAK AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CENTER.  LATEST 
AIRFORCE RECON FOUND THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE 
AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM CALCULATED SURFACE 
WIND FROM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 37 KTS.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KTS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/06.  AS THE SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSED 
WESTWARD DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS THE SPLIT IN THE GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY MERGING INTO ONE CAMP.  THE GENERAL CHANGE IN THE 
CAMP THAT WANTED TO GO NORTH OF CUBA HAS GRADUALLY TURNED MORE 
WESTWARD AND IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WEST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS THEY 
WILL ALL BE SOUTH OF CUBA.  WITH THIS IN MIND THE FORECAST TRACK IS 
BROUGHT SOUTH OF CUBA. BASED UPON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT 
STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT GETS WEST OF JAMAICA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 14.2N  70.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 14.6N  71.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.3N  72.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N  74.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.1N  75.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N  78.3W    40 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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