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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002
LILI LOOKS VERY RAGGED IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE PHOTOS. TOPS HAVE
BEEN WARMING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE WEAK AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CENTER. LATEST
AIRFORCE RECON FOUND THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM CALCULATED SURFACE
WIND FROM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 37 KTS. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/06. AS THE SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSED
WESTWARD DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS THE SPLIT IN THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY MERGING INTO ONE CAMP. THE GENERAL CHANGE IN THE
CAMP THAT WANTED TO GO NORTH OF CUBA HAS GRADUALLY TURNED MORE
WESTWARD AND IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WEST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS THEY
WILL ALL BE SOUTH OF CUBA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BROUGHT SOUTH OF CUBA. BASED UPON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT
STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT GETS WEST OF JAMAICA.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 14.2N 70.3W 35 KTS
12HR VT 26/1200Z 14.6N 71.2W 35 KTS
24HR VT 27/0000Z 15.3N 72.6W 35 KTS
36HR VT 27/1200Z 16.0N 74.0W 35 KTS
48HR VT 28/0000Z 17.1N 75.5W 35 KTS
72HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 78.3W 40 KTS...INLAND
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