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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002
THE FIRST INFRARED IMAGES AFTER THE GOES ECLIPSE PERIOD
CONFIRM WHAT RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND EARLIER TONIGHT...
A DISORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH MAY NOT HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1200 UTC TO MAKE ANOTHER DETERMINATION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES INDICATING THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY AND
MAINTAINED THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...285/10. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM STRUCTURE
AS MENTIONED ABOVE AND IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN FOR LILI
TAKING THE STORM ACROSS HISPANIOLA OR EASTERN CUBA AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 72 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECASTER JARVINEN/COBB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 14.1N 68.4W 35 KTS
12HR VT 25/1800Z 14.8N 70.1W 35 KTS
24HR VT 26/0600Z 16.2N 72.0W 35 KTS
36HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 73.7W 35 KTS
48HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 74.5W 35 KTS
72HR VT 28/0600Z 22.0N 76.0W 35 KTS
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