[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002
 
THE FIRST INFRARED IMAGES AFTER THE GOES ECLIPSE PERIOD 
CONFIRM WHAT RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND EARLIER TONIGHT...
A DISORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH MAY NOT HAVE A CLOSED 
CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1200 UTC TO MAKE ANOTHER DETERMINATION. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS FROM ALL THREE 
AGENCIES INDICATING THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM 
ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY AND 
MAINTAINED THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...285/10. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM STRUCTURE 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE AND IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NHC MODEL 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN FOR LILI
TAKING THE STORM ACROSS HISPANIOLA OR EASTERN CUBA AND EVENTUALLY 
INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 72 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK 
REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 14.1N  68.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 14.8N  70.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 16.2N  72.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N  73.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  74.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 22.0N  76.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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