[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
 
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING LILI THIS EVENING 
WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION.  RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN 
EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION NEAR 15.7N 
65.5W...HOWEVER RECON ONLY FOUND EASTERLY WINDS OVER THAT 
AREA...SUGGESTING THAT THE CIRCULATION IS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.   
THE PLANE DID FIND A LARGE AREA OF 35-45 KT EASTERLY WINDS AT FLIGHT 
LEVEL...AND FAIRLY STRONG EAST WINDS UP TO 37 KT AT THE SURFACE.  
THIS IS THE BASIS FOR REDUCING THE WINDS TO 35 KT AS OUR INITIAL 
VALUE.  LILI APPEARS VERY RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THIS 
COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY SHEAR OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 
THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS 
STRUGGLING.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS LEFT INVARIANT THROUGHOUT 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.   

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED DOWN TO 280/9.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS 
BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM STRUCTURE AS MENTIONED ABOVE.  NHC MODEL 
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH 
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BEING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE 
SUITE.  

FORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 13.7N  67.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 14.4N  69.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 15.7N  71.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.2N  73.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.7N  73.7W    35 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 21.4N  75.2W    35 KTS
 
 
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