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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING LILI THIS EVENING
WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN
EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION NEAR 15.7N
65.5W...HOWEVER RECON ONLY FOUND EASTERLY WINDS OVER THAT
AREA...SUGGESTING THAT THE CIRCULATION IS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THE PLANE DID FIND A LARGE AREA OF 35-45 KT EASTERLY WINDS AT FLIGHT
LEVEL...AND FAIRLY STRONG EAST WINDS UP TO 37 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THIS IS THE BASIS FOR REDUCING THE WINDS TO 35 KT AS OUR INITIAL
VALUE. LILI APPEARS VERY RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY SHEAR OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
STRUGGLING. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS LEFT INVARIANT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED DOWN TO 280/9. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM STRUCTURE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BEING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE.
FORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 13.7N 67.5W 35 KTS
12HR VT 25/1200Z 14.4N 69.2W 35 KTS
24HR VT 26/0000Z 15.7N 71.4W 35 KTS
36HR VT 26/1200Z 17.2N 73.0W 35 KTS
48HR VT 27/0000Z 18.7N 73.7W 35 KTS
72HR VT 28/0000Z 21.4N 75.2W 35 KTS
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