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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-WEST. THE PRESSURE
HAS CONTINUED TO RISE SLIGHTLY AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER VENEZUELA
HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS LILI.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. RECON FIX POSITIONS INDICATE
THAT LILI HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME MORE. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO 
CONTINUED TO WALK THEIR FORECAST TRACKS STEADILY WESTWARD...WHILE 
THE GFDL MODEL HAS FLOPPED BACK TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA. ALL OF THE 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE AGREE ON KEEPING A STRONG NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST 
ORIENTED RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BETWEEN ISIDORE AND LILI
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEY ARE EQUALLY CONSISTENT ON 
WANTING TO DRIVE LILI NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE AFTER 
48 HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...WITH KYLE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A  
HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS...MY FEELING IS THAT THE SYMPATHETIC RIDGE 
BETWEEN KYLE AND LILI WILL HOLD AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN...WHICH 
SHOULD KEEP LILI MOVING MORE WESTWARD THAN POLEWARD THROUGH AT LEAST 
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SINCE THERE WAS SUCH A MAJOR WESTWARD SHIFT IN 
THE NHC GUIDANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS 
OUTSIDE THE RIGHT EDGE OF MODEL ENVELOPE AND HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE 
TO THE LEFT OR WESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK THEN 
COMES BACK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 48- AND 72-HOUR TRACK POSITIONS OUT 
OF RESPECT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NOW TAKE LILI ACROSS EASTERN 
CUBA OR THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
 
WHILE LILI IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...IT 
COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS 
SLOWED DOWN SOME MORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE 
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STARTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND THIS 
...COMBINED WITH THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...SHOULD ALLOW THE 
INNER-CORE TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION 
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN AHEAD OF 
LILI ALSO FAVORS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS LILI TO 87 
KT IN 48 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN 
COAST OF HAITI. THE INTENSITY WAS BROUGHT DOWN TO 65 KT AT 72 HOURS 
DUE TO EXPECTED TERRAIN INTERACTION OVER THE TIBURON PENINSULA OF 
HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 13.4N  66.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 14.1N  68.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 15.2N  70.7W    70 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 16.6N  72.8W    75 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.2N  73.8W    85 KTS...NEAR SOUTHERN HAITI
72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N  75.0W    65 KTS...NEAR EASTERN CUBA
 
 
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