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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
AND AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED AN 800 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 76 KT IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO
60 KT. THE PRESSURE OF 1004 MB TO 1006 MB IS RATHER HIGH...BUT THE
LAST RECON FIX POSITIONS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE
STARTING TO TUCK IN CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. RECON FIX POSITONS SUGGEST
THAT LILI HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS POSSIBLY TURNING MORE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WALK THEIR FORECAST
TRACKS STEADILY WESTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN WINDSHIELD-
WIPERING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI FOR THE PAST 6 MODEL RUNS. ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING A STRONG NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BETWEEN ISIDORE AND LILI
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO DRIVE LILI
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIDGE AFTER 36 HOURS. WITH KYLE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN INTO A POSSIBLE HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...MY FEELING
IS THAT THERE WILL BE A SYMPATHETIC RIDGE BUILD BETWEEN KYLE AND
LILI...WHICH MAY KEEP LILI MOVING MORE WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD. AS
SUCH...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK.
LILI IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY RIGHT NOW...DESPITE THE
PRESSURE DISPARITY. SINCE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...LILI COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN FAVORS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS
LILI TO AROUND 90 KT IN 48 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 13.2N 65.6W 60 KTS
12HR VT 25/0000Z 14.0N 67.6W 65 KTS
24HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 69.7W 70 KTS
36HR VT 26/0000Z 16.3N 71.2W 75 KTS
48HR VT 26/1200Z 18.0N 72.8W 85 KTS
72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 75.0W 65 KTS...INLAND
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