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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
 
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FIX...
0502 UTC...AGAINST THE FIRST IR IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE PERIOD
STILL INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS WEST OF THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER/AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 59 KT AT 1500 FEET WERE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 0333 UTC WHICH REDUCES TO 48 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS...CLOSER
TO THE RECON WIND VALUES FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD...275/17. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A MORE
POLEWARD MOTION...DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...THAT WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER HAITI JUST BEYOND 48 HOURS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
TO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES AS WELL
AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. IF SUBSEQUENT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NORTHWARD TURN FOR LILI...A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY ISSUED FOR HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
VENEZUELA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE
INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN THE
FORWARD SPEED OF LILI SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION OF THE OVERALL
SHEAR OVER THE STORM. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES SUCH AS SCENARIO AND
BRINGS LILI TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...EXCEPT AT 72
HOURS WHEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 13.0N  64.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 13.7N  66.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 14.7N  69.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.1N  70.7W    70 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N  72.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N  74.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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