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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM 
LILI HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION IS 
NOW BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND 
WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND 54 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BARBADOS AND 
ST. LUCIA...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON 
A 23/1712Z RECON WIND SPEED OF 64 KT AT 1500 FT. THIS EQUATES TO 
ROUGHLY 51 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL 
LAGGING ABOUT 30 NMI BEHIND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT IT IS MUCH 
CLOSER NOW THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN 
ALL QUADRANTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/17. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS 
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. HOWEVER...THE NHC 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVERGENT NOW WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS 
TAKING LILI MORE WESTWARD...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED 
THEIR PREVIOUS TREND OF TAKING THE CYCLONE MORE POLEWARD. THE GFDL 
MODEL APPEARS TO BE FAST AND TAKES LILI TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN 
72 HOURS AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER HURRICANE. THE GLOBAL MODELS... 
ESPECIALLY THE GFS/AVN AND GFS/AVN ENSEMBLE MODELS...HAVE MADE A 
LARGE WESTWARD TRACK SHIFT OF MORE THAN 150 NMI. GIVEN THE SMALL 
SIZE OF LILI AND ITS CURRENT LOW LATITUDE POSITION...I BELIEVE THE 
GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A POLEWARD BIAS. BUT BY 48 
HOURS...THE SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES 
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...BUT REMAINS INTACT AS TROPICAL STORMS KYLE 
AND ISIDORE MOVE AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL-GFDN 
CONSENSUS.
 
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR 
AND LILI IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT 
SOONER. THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR SOME RAPID STRENGTHENING TO 
OCCUR BY 48 HOURS WHEN LILI IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. 
HOWEVER...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION DICTATES THAT THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST REMAIN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 12.6N  61.2W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.3N  63.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.2N  66.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.2N  68.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N  70.4W    80 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  74.0W    80 KTS..NEAR HAITI
 
 
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