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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM
LILI HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOW BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND 54 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BARBADOS AND
ST. LUCIA...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON
A 23/1712Z RECON WIND SPEED OF 64 KT AT 1500 FT. THIS EQUATES TO
ROUGHLY 51 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL
LAGGING ABOUT 30 NMI BEHIND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT IT IS MUCH
CLOSER NOW THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/17. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. HOWEVER...THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVERGENT NOW WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS
TAKING LILI MORE WESTWARD...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR PREVIOUS TREND OF TAKING THE CYCLONE MORE POLEWARD. THE GFDL
MODEL APPEARS TO BE FAST AND TAKES LILI TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN
72 HOURS AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER HURRICANE. THE GLOBAL MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE GFS/AVN AND GFS/AVN ENSEMBLE MODELS...HAVE MADE A
LARGE WESTWARD TRACK SHIFT OF MORE THAN 150 NMI. GIVEN THE SMALL
SIZE OF LILI AND ITS CURRENT LOW LATITUDE POSITION...I BELIEVE THE
GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A POLEWARD BIAS. BUT BY 48
HOURS...THE SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...BUT REMAINS INTACT AS TROPICAL STORMS KYLE
AND ISIDORE MOVE AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL-GFDN
CONSENSUS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR
AND LILI IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER. THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR SOME RAPID STRENGTHENING TO
OCCUR BY 48 HOURS WHEN LILI IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
HOWEVER...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION DICTATES THAT THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAIN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 12.6N 61.2W 50 KTS
12HR VT 24/0600Z 13.3N 63.5W 55 KTS
24HR VT 24/1800Z 14.2N 66.2W 60 KTS
36HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 68.5W 65 KTS
48HR VT 25/1800Z 16.2N 70.4W 80 KTS
72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 74.0W 80 KTS..NEAR HAITI
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