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TROPICAL STORM LILI SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM LILI 
BASED ON AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORT OF 58 KT AT 1000 
FT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/17. ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD 
ADJUSTMENT WAS WAS MADE OUT TO 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE 
SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE RECON VORTEX MESSAGE. OF 
COURSE...THE FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER WEST THAT LILI TRACKS...THE 
LESS LIKELY THE AVN/GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS WILL VERIFY IN TAKING THE 
CYCLONE POLEWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1530Z 12.4N  59.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N  62.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 13.9N  64.9W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.9N  67.4W    55 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.9N  69.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N  73.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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