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TROPICAL STORM LILI SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM LILI
BASED ON AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORT OF 58 KT AT 1000
FT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/17. ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS WAS MADE OUT TO 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE RECON VORTEX MESSAGE. OF
COURSE...THE FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER WEST THAT LILI TRACKS...THE
LESS LIKELY THE AVN/GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS WILL VERIFY IN TAKING THE
CYCLONE POLEWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1530Z 12.4N 59.7W 45 KTS
12HR VT 24/0000Z 13.0N 62.1W 45 KTS
24HR VT 24/1200Z 13.9N 64.9W 50 KTS
36HR VT 25/0000Z 14.9N 67.4W 55 KTS
48HR VT 25/1200Z 15.9N 69.5W 65 KTS
72HR VT 26/1200Z 18.0N 73.0W 75 KTS
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