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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION 
IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND IS MOVING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. IT MEANS 
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...OR REFORMS UNDER THE CONVECTION 
IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BUT IF IT DOES NOT...WE MAY END UP 
WITH AN OPEN WAVE SOON. AT THIS TIME...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS 
INDICATED BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY BE 
REQUIRED. THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE OF THIS SYSTEM 
THAT WE WOULD RATHER MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEPRESSION FOR A 
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ISSUING WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 12.0N  52.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 12.5N  55.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.5N  58.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.5N  61.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N  63.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.0N  67.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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