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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION...WHICH LOOKED A
LITTLE SUSPECT...INDICATED ONLY 5 KT WINDS ABOUT 120 NM WEST OF THE
DEPRESSION. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM WILL BE HELD AS A 30 KT
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/16 KT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST THE
GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE WILL AFFECT THE
LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.
A FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. USING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL
AS GUIDANCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
FORECASTER JARVINEN/BROWN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 10.8N 48.6W 30 KTS
12HR VT 22/1800Z 11.5N 50.9W 40 KTS
24HR VT 23/0600Z 12.4N 54.1W 50 KTS
36HR VT 23/1800Z 13.6N 57.2W 60 KTS
48HR VT 24/0600Z 15.0N 60.0W 70 KTS
72HR VT 25/0600Z 17.2N 64.5W 80 KTS
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