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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  DVORAK 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB 
AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION...WHICH LOOKED A 
LITTLE SUSPECT...INDICATED ONLY 5 KT WINDS ABOUT 120 NM WEST OF THE 
DEPRESSION.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM WILL BE HELD AS A 30 KT 
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/16 KT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS 
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD 
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST THE 
GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN 
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER 
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL 
ENVELOPE.  ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE WILL AFFECT THE 
LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.
 
A FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. USING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL 
AS GUIDANCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
  
FORECASTER JARVINEN/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 10.8N  48.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 11.5N  50.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 12.4N  54.1W    50 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 13.6N  57.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N  60.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 17.2N  64.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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