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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
ARE AT THE THRESHOLD AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL
BE 30 KTS.
A FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS AT
ABOUT 275/15. USING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AS GUIDANCE THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEATLY CLUSTERED...AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AND THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE LESSER
ANTILLES IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 10.3N 46.7W 30 KTS
12HR VT 22/1200Z 10.7N 49.0W 40 KTS
24HR VT 23/0000Z 11.3N 52.0W 50 KTS
36HR VT 23/1200Z 12.4N 55.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 24/0000Z 13.9N 58.0W 70 KTS
72HR VT 25/0000Z 16.3N 62.7W 80 KTS
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