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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  88
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002
 
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON DATA ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE THAT KYLE HAS STRENGTHENED BACK INTO A TROPICAL STORM FOR 
THE FIFTH TIME. AT 06Z...RECON FOUND 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 
49 KT IN CONVECTION...WHICH IS ABOUT 39 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHILE 
THE DIAMOND SHOALS C-MAN STATION REPORTED 8-MIN AVERAGE WINDS OF 38 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 43 KT AT 07Z. RECON ALSO FOUND A PRESSURE OF 1009 
MB OVER THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KYLE 
WAS BROUGHT UP TO A 40 KT TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/20. KYLE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE 
EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO 
INTERACT WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. KYLE WAS KEPT 
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 06Z BASED ON RE-INTENSIFICATION THAT 
OCCURRED IN AN AIRMASS OF MID- TO UPPER-70 DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF A SLOW 
MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...AN 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH 
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT KYLE IS QUICKLY BECOMING 
EXTRATROPICAL AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL LOW 
CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 60 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE TIP OF THE DELMARVA 
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. AFTER MERGER 
OCCURS...THE KYLE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTWARD AS 
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
 
FORECASTING BAROCLINIC STRENGTHENING IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. DEEP 
CONVECTION...TOPS COLDER THAN -70C...HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO SOME 
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT JETSTREAM DYNAMICS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
CALLS FOR NO STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT 
KYLE COULD BECOME A 50 KT EXTRATROPICAL STORM CENTER...GIVEN THE 
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR 
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 36.0N  75.0W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     12/1800Z 37.1N  72.2W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     13/0600Z 38.2N  68.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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