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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 88
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON DATA ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT KYLE HAS STRENGTHENED BACK INTO A TROPICAL STORM FOR
THE FIFTH TIME. AT 06Z...RECON FOUND 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
49 KT IN CONVECTION...WHICH IS ABOUT 39 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHILE
THE DIAMOND SHOALS C-MAN STATION REPORTED 8-MIN AVERAGE WINDS OF 38
KT WITH GUSTS TO 43 KT AT 07Z. RECON ALSO FOUND A PRESSURE OF 1009
MB OVER THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KYLE
WAS BROUGHT UP TO A 40 KT TROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/20. KYLE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
INTERACT WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. KYLE WAS KEPT
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 06Z BASED ON RE-INTENSIFICATION THAT
OCCURRED IN AN AIRMASS OF MID- TO UPPER-70 DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...AN 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT KYLE IS QUICKLY BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 60 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE TIP OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. AFTER MERGER
OCCURS...THE KYLE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTWARD AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
FORECASTING BAROCLINIC STRENGTHENING IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. DEEP
CONVECTION...TOPS COLDER THAN -70C...HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO SOME
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT JETSTREAM DYNAMICS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR NO STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
KYLE COULD BECOME A 50 KT EXTRATROPICAL STORM CENTER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 36.0N 75.0W 40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 12/1800Z 37.1N 72.2W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 13/0600Z 38.2N 68.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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