HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  86
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002
 
REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT KYLE NO LONGER HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SO
IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE
DISCONTINUED.
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
KYLE IS LOCATED ON THE COASTLINE NEAR CAPE FEAR...WHILE A
SECOND...NON-TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED OVER ALBEMARLE SOUND IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS MODEL
DEEPENS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW...WHICH THEN ENTRAINS KYLE...OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW
POINTS FOR THE DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH IT IS MY
EXPECTATION THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT IN FACT BE A CONTINUATION
OF THE CIRCULATION OF KYLE.  SHOULD KYLE DISSIPATE OR BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...ADVISORIES ON KYLE WILL CEASE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0000Z 34.0N  78.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 35.5N  76.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  72.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     13/0600Z 39.0N  67.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     13/1800Z 40.0N  63.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     14/1800Z 41.5N  56.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN