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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  80
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER 
ORGANIZED.  THERE WAS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER 
ALTHOUGH THIS IS BEING SHEARED BY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.  
HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED 
TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION.  SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT 
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO CHECK THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT 
CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AND THAT MODEL HAS BEEN OVER-PREDICTING THE 
INTENSITY OF KYLE FOR SOME TIME NOW.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM 
LOOKS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING...THERE IS NOW A GREATER 
POSSIBILITY OF KYLE REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THEREFORE A 
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.  

THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.  KYLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT 
MOVES AROUND A LOW/MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  LATER IN THE 
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF 
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN 
UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF THE 
LATEST GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECASTS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 28.5N  78.6W    25 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 28.9N  80.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 30.3N  81.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 31.8N  81.1W    30 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 33.5N  80.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     13/1200Z 37.0N  77.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
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