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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  76
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2002
 
KYLE CONTINUES AS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED 
SHOWER OR TWO...NO DEEP CONVECTION.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS 
INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS MAY BE DOWN TO 25 KT BUT SINCE A 
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KYLE PRESENTLY I 
WILL WAIT TO SEE THE AIRCRAFT DATA BEFORE LOWERING THE WINDS.  AS 
THE CYCLONE MOVES MORE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE... 
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE.  HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND...IF THIS 
CONTINUES...KYLE COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING...MAINLY 
BECAUSE THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM DECREASING SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ARE 
DOMINATING THAT MODEL'S INTENSITY FORECAST.  NONE OF THE PURELY 
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW RE-STRENGTHENING.
  
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN IN THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS LIKELY OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS KYLE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS STEERED AROUND THE 
PERIPHERY OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 
TRACK PREDICTION MODEL GUIDANCE. 
  
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 28.5N  74.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 28.0N  76.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 27.7N  77.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 28.0N  79.9W    25 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 28.8N  81.3W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N  82.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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