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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  72
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 08 2002

KYLE IS NOT LOOKING TOO HEALTHY AT THE MOMENT.  THERE IS A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF RAGGEDLY-SHAPED DEEP CONVECTION...THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS SHEAR IS BEING PRODUCE BY A
COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF KYLE AND A
LARGE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 28N IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALTHOUGH SUCH AN
ENVIRONMENT WOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME SHEAR OVER KYLE...IT COULD BE
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER THE GFS AND U.K.  MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE NOT IMPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT...AS THEY WEAKEN KYLE TO A
SURFACE TROUGH IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE
PREVIOUS ONES...ALLOWS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION IN A COUPLE DAYS BUT
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

THE STORM IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...
AROUND 195/5.  AS A 500 MB RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST 
OF KYLE...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND 
EVENTUALLY WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN 
THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT AS FAST AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS 
THE GFS AND GFDL HURRICANE MODELS.  

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 31.1N  71.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 30.3N  71.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 29.3N  72.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 28.6N  73.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 28.1N  74.8W    45 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 27.5N  77.5W    50 KTS
 
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