ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 66
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002
KYLE APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED BACK INTO A MORE
TYPICAL BANDING PATTERN. THE INITIAL LOCATION IS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC WITH A 07/0025Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATING A POSSIBLE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION...
WHILE THE SAME IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE MID-LEVEL
DOUGHNUT-HOLE FEATURE TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BETWEEN
THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE AND THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL FEATURE IN CASE
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WORKS ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD AS AN ANTICYCLONE HAS
BUILT ABOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/02. FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...
KYLE COULD EASILY BE CONSIDERED STATIONARY...ESPECIALLY IF THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW-LEVEL
FEATURE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFDN...AND THE BAM
MODELS NOW AGREE ON TAKING KYLE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
THAT. THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH 24 TO
36 HOURS AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND WEAKEN
BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK OF THE LOW SEEMS
REASONABLE...BUT I FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW
TOO QUICKLY GIVEN ITS RATHER LARGE SIZE OF ALMOST 1000 NMI IN
DIAMETER. AS SUCH...I EXPECT THE UPPER-LOW TO HAVE A GREATER
SOUTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THAN WHAT THE AVN/GFS IS INDICATING...
BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS KYLE VERY
CLOSE TO BERMUDA. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN
KYLE AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE EAST...THE UPPER-LOW IS MUCH LARGER
THAN KYLE AND THEREFORE SHOULD ACT TO STEER THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE
SOUTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL SOLUTION TAKES KYLE NORTH
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE OUTLIER FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK IN DIRECTION...BUT CONSIDERABLY
FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS.
WITH SOME NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS KYLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST. BUT SINCE KYLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE LATITUDE AND
MOVE OVER WARMER WATER...THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
FORECAST AT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
STILL LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH MAKES KYLE A HURRICANE AGAIN
BY 72 HOURS...IN SPITE OF NEARLY 30 KT OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 32.5N 69.7W 35 KTS
12HR VT 07/1200Z 32.5N 69.4W 40 KTS
24HR VT 08/0000Z 32.3N 69.1W 45 KTS
36HR VT 08/1200Z 31.7N 68.4W 50 KTS
48HR VT 09/0000Z 30.8N 68.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 10/0000Z 28.5N 68.0W 50 KTS
NNNN
Webmaster