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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  64
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002
 
IN ADDITION TO A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB...A 
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND SPEEDS 
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS WE ARE RE-UPGRADING KYLE TO A 
TROPICAL STORM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES KYLE IS NOW IN A 
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COURTESY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  THESE 
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FOR 
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF AN 
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW AND INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY 
FLOW WILL PROBABLY CREATE A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.   

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SLIGHT JOG TO THE 
NORTH DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.  KYLE IS VIRTUALLY IN A COL...WITH A 
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO 
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE 
EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK 
GUIDANCE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREAT UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE 
FUTURE MOTION OF KYLE.  IN PARTICULAR THERE IS A QUESTION HOW THE 
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL AFFECT THE 
STEERING.  THEREFORE...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO SHOW LITTLE MOTION FOR 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 

FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 33.7N  69.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 34.0N  69.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 34.0N  69.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 34.0N  68.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 34.0N  68.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 34.0N  68.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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