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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002
 
KYLE IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE 
CONVECTION AND THERE ARE NO EVIDENCES OF NEW CELLS REDEVELOPING AT 
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS TIGHT AND WELL DEFINED. 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW IN 36 
TO 48 HOURS WHEN KYLE COULD RESTRENGTHEN IF THE SHEAR RELAXES AS 
MODELS INDICATE AND KYLE SURVIVES THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 320/5 KNOTS. THE RIDGE NORTH OF KYLE IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN 
TO THE NORTH. THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE...WILL THE 
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TAKE KYLE WITH IT TO THE NORTHEAST? MODELS 
REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT...PRIMARILY IN THE SPEED.  THE BEST SOLUTION 
IS TO KEEP KYLE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNTIL A MORE DEFINITE 
STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 30.8N  70.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 31.5N  71.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 32.5N  71.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  72.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 34.5N  72.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 35.5N  71.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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