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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002
 
A 0121Z SSMI PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KYLE HAS 
BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB FURTHER SUPPORT A 
WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KT 
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
TRACK REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A SLOW 
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND 
THAT TIME...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT SYSTEM IS 
CAPTURED BY THE SAME TROUGH FORCING LILI NORTHWARD. GFS IS SLOWEST 
OF GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE NORTHWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH REMAINDER OF 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION. 
SIMILARLY GLOBAL MODELS ALL APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT A SECOND 
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN 72 HOURS 
WILL FINALLY PULL KYLE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS 
SLOWED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
KYLE SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR 
RELAXES YET AGAIN PROVIDING KYLE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SOME 
INTENSIFICATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 29.8N  68.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 30.2N  69.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 31.1N  70.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 31.8N  70.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 32.5N  70.6W    40 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 34.0N  70.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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