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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002
A 0121Z SSMI PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KYLE HAS
BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB FURTHER SUPPORT A
WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
TRACK REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A SLOW
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT SYSTEM IS
CAPTURED BY THE SAME TROUGH FORCING LILI NORTHWARD. GFS IS SLOWEST
OF GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE NORTHWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH REMAINDER OF
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION.
SIMILARLY GLOBAL MODELS ALL APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN 72 HOURS
WILL FINALLY PULL KYLE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SLOWED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KYLE SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR
RELAXES YET AGAIN PROVIDING KYLE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SOME
INTENSIFICATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 29.8N 68.8W 35 KTS
12HR VT 04/1800Z 30.2N 69.6W 35 KTS
24HR VT 05/0600Z 31.1N 70.5W 35 KTS
36HR VT 05/1800Z 31.8N 70.6W 40 KTS
48HR VT 06/0600Z 32.5N 70.6W 40 KTS
72HR VT 07/0600Z 34.0N 70.0W 50 KTS
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