HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/5...ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.
THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.  A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...AND SHOULD GENTLY STEER KYLE AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY ON A GRADUAL RECURVING TRACK BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND
BERMUDA.  THE GFS REMAINS AMONG THE SLOWEST MODELS WITH THE
RECURVATURE...BUT IN RECENT RUNS IT HAS BEEN TOO SLOW WITH THE
OBSERVED WESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT WITH A SHARPER NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE VIGOROUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVED
BANDING.  DESPITE THIS IMPROVED APPEARANCE...DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND KGWC ARE 30...35...AND 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  SINCE THE QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SUPPORTED
45 KT...I WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE 45 KT.  THERE IS ALREADY EVIDENCE
THAT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES ARE IMPINGING ON KYLE...AS THE
SYSTEM HAS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST WHILE IT IS RESTRICTED TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN HOW STRONG THIS
SHEARING FLOW WILL BE AND OVER HOW LARGE AN AREA IT WILL EXTEND.
ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WEAKENS KYLE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SO QUICK TO WEAKEN KYLE...AS
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT KYLE MAY BE ABLE TO AVOID A PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  AS KYLE BEGINS TO MOVE MORE
NORTHWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 29.4N  68.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 29.7N  68.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 30.3N  69.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 31.3N  71.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 33.0N  71.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 35.0N  70.0W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN