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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
KYLE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT...AS EXPECTED. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/4. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...AND SHOULD GENTLY
STEER KYLE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY ON A GRADUAL RECURVING TRACK BETWEEN
THE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS CONSIDERABLE
SCATTER WITH REGARD TO FORWARD SPEED. THE GFS IS AMONG THE SLOWEST
MODELS...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WESTWARD COMPONENT FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS. THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER TRACK
AND IN BETTER TOUCH WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LEANS IN THIS DIRECTION.
WHILE THE CIRCULATION OF KYLE IS BROAD...IS APPEARS TO HAVE SPUN
DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY. CONVECTION IS WEAK AND LIMITED IN AREAL
EXTENT. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF
RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO
45 KT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL HARASS KYLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO ADDITIONAL DECREASES
ARE EXPECTED. AS KYLE BEGINS TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 29.2N 67.5W 45 KTS
12HR VT 04/0000Z 29.4N 68.2W 40 KTS
24HR VT 04/1200Z 29.8N 69.2W 35 KTS
36HR VT 05/0000Z 30.4N 70.3W 40 KTS
48HR VT 05/1200Z 31.5N 71.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 06/1200Z 33.5N 71.5W 50 KTS
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