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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
 
DESPITE THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT CONTINUES ACROSS KYLE...INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS BROUGHT UP TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM BOTH 
TAFB AND SAB. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH LATEST IMAGERY INDICATING CONVECTION 
ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. SHIPS 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE 
FORECAST. GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT 
DEEPENING...AND THAT IS RESTIRCTED TO THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY MODEST STRENGTHENING 
BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR RELAXES SLIGHTLY OVER KYLE.
 
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT...A SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD DRIFT IS 
EXPECTED AS KYLE BECOMES STEERED BY THE MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE THAT 
BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH OF IT BY THAT TIME. AVN REMAINS ONLY 
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER TO THE EAST OF CURRENT POSITION.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 28.4N  67.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 28.2N  67.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 28.1N  67.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 28.0N  68.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 27.9N  68.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 27.9N  69.4W    50 KTS
 
 
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