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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
  
KYLE HAS A WELL DEFINED AND LARGE CIRCULATION BUT CONTINUES TO 
SUFFER FROM NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION 
CONTINUOSLY. SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 
WINDS ARE NOW 40 KNOTS BUT THEY ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
CENTER. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL REINTENSIFY KYLE BUT WITH THE CURRENT 
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE BEST OPTION FOR THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS TO MAINTAIN THE SAME INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS.    
 
THE CENTER OF KYLE HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND A LARGER CIRCULATION 
WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND 
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  A 
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPANDS EASTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS 
LONG RANGE FORECAST POSITIONS IN ALL DIRECTIONS BUT MORE MODELS ARE 
JOINING THE SOUTHWESTWARD PARADE. 

IF KYLE SURVIVES AND GETS TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS 
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH A WESTWARD TRACK. 
THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL IS NOT IN FAVOR OF THIS SOLUTION. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 28.5N  67.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 28.5N  67.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 28.5N  67.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 27.8N  67.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.2N  68.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  68.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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