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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE NOGAPS IS 
SLOW WESTWARD...THE UKMET IS SLOW NORTHWARD AND THE GFDL AND GFS ARE 
SLOW AND NOT AS SLOW EASTWARD.  IN THE FACE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY... 
THE MOTION WILL BE FORECAST AS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 72 
HOUR.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE FOUR MODELS 
MENTIONED ABOVE.

THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT APPEARED YESTERDAY IS WARMING AND 
REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER AS 
GUESTIMATED FROM INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AND THE 
FORECAST WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS 
NEARLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DIAGNOSES THE VERTICAL 
SHEAR AT 17 KNOTS OR HIGHER THROUGH 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 28.5N  66.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 28.5N  66.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     02/0600Z 29.0N  66.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     02/1800Z 29.0N  66.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     03/0600Z 29.0N  66.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     04/0600Z 29.0N  66.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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