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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
 
OVERALL APPEARANCE OF KYLE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. A 
RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE SURFACE 
CENTER...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SHEAR THIS 
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
IN AGREEMENT WITH AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AND 
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN BOTH TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES.

AT THIS TIME...KYLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION AS IT DRIFTS 
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING THE 
CIRCULATION CENTER...BOTH FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN A BIT 
UNCERTAIN. GFDL IS SOLE DYNAMIC MODEL INDICATING A WESTWARD 
MOTION...ALBEIT VERY SLOW...THROUGH 72 HOURS. BOTH UKMET AND AVN 
BOTH INDICATING A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION WHILE THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL 
INDICATES A SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
SHOULD THE CIRCULATION BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE VERTICAL..KYLE 
WOULD LIKELY TRACK WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST BENEATH A STRONG MIDDLE 
LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. OTHERWISE THE SYSTEM COULD BE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS STEERING FOR IT...WILL REMAIN WEAK. 

DUE TO THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...THE BERMUDA 
WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 27.4N  67.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 27.3N  67.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     02/0000Z 27.1N  67.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     02/1200Z 27.0N  67.6W    30 KTS
48HR VT     03/0000Z 27.0N  67.7W    30 KTS
72HR VT     04/0000Z 27.0N  67.8W    30 KTS
 
 
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