HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
 
THIS IS AN UNUSUAL AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.  SATELLITE IMAGES
AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF KYLE BECAME
ELONGATED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST.  THE NORTHEAST PORTION IS BECOMING
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST RAPIDLY.
IT WILL MONITORED FOR GENERATION.  THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
DEVELOPED CONVECTION AND IS PARTIALLY SEPARATED FROM THE FRONT.
THIS REFORMATION IS CONSISTENT WITH WIND REPORTS FROM THE BUOY 41652
AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THIS SOUTHWESTERN
CIRCULATION...WHICH IS NOW CONSIDERED TO BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
KYLE...IS POORLY DEFINED AND ITS FUTURE INTENSITY OR TRACK IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  AT THIS TIME...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN AS A 30-KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING LITTLE OR WITH A
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT BUT IT CAN EASILY DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...IF KYLE
SURVIVES...IT MAY BE STEERED WEST-OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AS INDICATED BY THE BAM MODELS AND
LBAR.  THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOLUTION WAS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF RUN
FROM YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE GFS CARRIED A SMALL PIECE OF VORTICITY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL TAKING THE SYSTEM
TOWARD THE EAST BUT WE WILL SEE IF THIS FORECAST MOTION PERSISTS IN
THE NEXT GLOBAL MODEL RUN WITH THE RELOCATION.

DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...THE BERMUDA WEATHER 
SERVICE HAS OPTED TO CONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 27.5N  67.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 27.5N  67.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 27.3N  67.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 27.0N  67.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 27.0N  67.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 26.5N  68.0W    30 KTS
 
 
NNNN