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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT USING
CONTINUITY AND LOW CLOUD LINES...IT APPEARS THAT IT IS LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL
SUPPORT 40 KNOT WINDS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE...THE
OCEAN IS WARM AND SHEAR COULD RELAX...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.  BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INDICATE SO.
HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KYLE SHOULD BEGIN TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS THAT KYLE
HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BUT SOON IT WILL
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.
 
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THAT ISLAND.  THE COMBINATION OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF KYLE AND A
COLD FRONT IS ALREADY CAUSING GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN 
BERMUDA.

 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 29.8N  64.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 30.0N  64.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 30.0N  63.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 30.0N  62.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  60.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 30.0N  55.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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