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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002
 
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE
DURING THE PAST 6 HR AND HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
THE PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY
THE HIGHER CLOUD AND IS HARD TO FIND...MAKING BOTH THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES RATHER TRICKY.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT UNTIL
SOME BETTER DATA COMES IN ABOUT JUST HOW WELL ORGANIZED KYLE IS...
LIKE DAYLIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 010/5.  THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO EITHER THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION OR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF KYLE...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTH WITH
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.  THIS SHOULD PATTERN SHOULD
PRODUCE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS NEAR KYLE UNTIL THE WESTERLIES FORCE
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SOUTHWARD AFTER 24-36 HR.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO TURN EASTWARD AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY ERODES.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...BUT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER IN ITS EASTWARD MOTION THAN
THE AVN/GFS MODEL.  IT BEST AGREES WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET.
 
ANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HR...
AND THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP IS LIKELY THE RESULT.  LARGE-
SCALE MODELS INDICATE KYLE WILL HAVE 24 HR OR SO TO STRENGTHEN
BEFORE THE WESTERLIES ENCROACH UPON IT AND AGAIN INCREASE THE SHEAR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HR...
FOLLOWED A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY 72 HR AS THE SHEAR INCREASES TO 30
KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AVN/GFS AND UKMET BOTH GRADUALLY 
MERGE KYLE WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE PERIOD...MAKING IT 
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR.  SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE FRONT
IS RATHER WEAK AT THE MOMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN
TOWARD WEAKENING THROUGH SHEAR RATHER THAN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 29.3N  64.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 29.5N  64.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 29.5N  63.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 29.4N  62.9W    50 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 29.2N  61.9W    50 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 29.0N  59.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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