HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KYLE REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...CIRRUS IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTER SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT
HAS PLAGUED KYLE IS DIMINISHING.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CAUSING
THE SHEAR HAS MOVED EAST OF KYLE.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 40 KT
IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 45 KT FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  A DRIFTING BUOY WEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED
1005.4 MB AT 29/2000Z...SO THE 1002 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE LOOKS 
REASONABLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/5.  SURFACE AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES
THE ANTICYCLONE EAST OF KYLE EXTENDS TO THE SURFACE...WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH
OF BERMUDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE FRONT.  THE
LATTER FEATURE SUGGESTS THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD SOON
STOP.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL ENCROACH ON KYLE AND PRODUCE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT 
TO THE MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
BETWEEN NORTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION TO BECOME A
SLOW EASTWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HR.
 
THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL
BE A 24-36 HR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KYLE TO RE-INTENSIFY BEFORE
THE WESTERLIES REACHE THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS
THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THE FIRST 12 HR ON THE PREMISE THAT IT
WILL TAKE THAT LONG FOR THE STORM TO RE-ORGANIZE...THEN CALLS FOR
STRENGTHENING TO 50 KT BY 36 HR.  THE INTENSITY BEYOND THAT TIME
IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR COULD BE BALANCED
BY SOME FORCING FROM THE WESTERLIES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 28.9N  64.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 29.3N  64.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 29.5N  64.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 29.5N  63.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     02/0000Z 29.5N  62.1W    50 KTS
72HR VT     03/0000Z 29.5N  60.0W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN