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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002
 
KYLE CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE DOWN...NOW IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS
YIELDING 30-35 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  THE
DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF BERMUDA...WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO
MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED EAST TO WEST NEAR THE SYSTEM.  THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE SHEAR TO DECREASE SOME OVER KYLE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS...WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KT IN 72 HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND A HIGH DEVELOPS OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  COAST.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNSETTLED AND THE
TRACK GUIDANCE PLOT RESEMBLES THE CRAB NEBULA.  THE NCEP/GFS SPLITS
KYLE IN TWO...TAKING A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM QUICKLY WESTWARD
AND ENTRAINING IT INTO LILI IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...MEANWHILE...IS LEFT BEHIND AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD
AFTER THE 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SWEEPS
INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC.  THE UKMET...IN A COMPLETE FLIP FROM
ITS PREVIOUS RUN...TAKES KYLE...ALL OF IT...NORTHEASTWARD.  THE GFDL
AND THE BAM MODELS TAKE KYLE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST TAKES KYLE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.
IN DOING SO IT IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS AND UKMET.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 27.4N  64.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 27.5N  65.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 27.5N  65.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 27.3N  65.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 27.0N  66.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 26.5N  66.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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