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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON KYLE.  THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  INDEED...THE CENTER MAY BECOME EXPOSED
IN A FEW HOURS.  SINCE THE SHEARING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RELAXATION OF THE UPPER
FLOW OVER KYLE...SO A SLOW RE-STRENGTHENING BACK TO MINIMAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY IS SHOWN IN 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A WESTWARD DRIFT.  KYLE IS SITUATED ON 
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  THE NCEP 
GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THIS ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADING WESTWARD SOMEWHAT 
IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERSE...WITH THE NCEP 
GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW AN EASTWARD MOTION THAT APPEARS TO BE 
SPURIOUS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND 
SHOWS A VERY SLOW...GENERALLY WESTWARD...MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

FORECASTER PASCH/NELSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 26.3N  63.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 26.2N  64.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 26.2N  64.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 26.1N  65.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 26.1N  66.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 26.0N  66.5W    65 KTS
 
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