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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
 
SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A TOLL ON KYLE.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE IS RETREATING AND KYLE IS BECOMING MORE ELONGATED
EAST-WEST.  DRY AIR TO THE NORTH OF KYLE IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED INTO
THE CYCLONE CORE.  A MICROWAVE OVERPASS FROM 1247Z THIS MORNING
SHOWED THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER HAD BECOME DISPLACED ABOUT 15 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER BELOW.  DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND
KGWC HAVE COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.  THE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS UNTIL THE SHEAR LESSENS.  AT THAT
POINT...KYLE WOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RE-STRENGTHEN.
 
KYLE IS SLOWING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 250/3.  THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  KYLE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  A SECOND RIDGE ALONG 17N
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND KYLE IS TRAPPED IN BETWEEN.  AS LONG AS KYLE IS A
COHERENT SYSTEM VERTICALLY....IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...PUSHED ALONG MOSTLY
BY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE BERMUDA/U.S.  RIDGE WILL SLIDE OR BUILD WESTWARD
AND WEAKEN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FURTHER.  THE UKMET AND AVN HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS...WITH THE AVN NOW TAKING KYLE EASTWARD AND THE
UKMET NOW WESTWARD.  THE AVN TRACKER MAY BE FOLLOWING NEW BAROCLINIC
DEVELOPMENT EASTWARD...HOWEVER.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH ANTICIPATES KYLE BEING
ABANDONED BY ANY APPRECIABLE STEERING FLOW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 26.9N  60.9W    70 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 26.8N  61.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 26.7N  61.8W    55 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 26.7N  62.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 26.7N  62.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 26.7N  63.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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