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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002
 
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE UPON 
KYLE RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE OVERALL STORM ENVELOPE IS BECOMING ELONGATED EAST-WEST. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND 65 KNOTS 
FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS FOR THIS 
ADVISORY. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE 34 KNOT WIND AND 12 
FOOT SEA RADII BASED ON RECENT AMSU DATA AND 0600 UTC SHIP REPORTS.
  
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/05. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED 
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KYLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON 
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS 
LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE NHC MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION THROUGH
36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 
ENSEMBLES...NOGAPS...UKMET AND NOGAPS TURN KYLE TO THE NORTH
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP WHILE THE 
AVN STANDS ALONE IN IN TURNING KYLE TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST 
IN A CYCLONIC LOOP.  GIVEN SUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE OUTPUT...THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS 
TRACK WITH KYLE CREEPING WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. 
 
THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE THEIR TOLL 
ON KYLE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO 
RELAX...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. 
  
FORECASTER AVILA/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 27.0N  60.2W    75 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 26.7N  60.7W    70 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 26.5N  61.3W    65 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 26.3N  61.8W    55 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 26.1N  62.1W    55 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 26.0N  62.5W    60 KTS
 
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