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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002
 
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT KYLE HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL 
SOON BEGIN A DECLINE.  THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE 
PAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLIES 
AT RELATIVELY HIGH LEVELS ARE ABOUT TO UNDERCUT KYLES OUTFLOW LAYER. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 77 KT...ALTHOUGH THE T NUMBER 
FROM SAB IS NOW DOWN TO T4.0.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 
75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/7.  KYLE IS LOCATED BETWEEN MID-LEVEL 
RIDGES TO ITS NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.  FOR THE MOMENT...THE FORMER 
RIDGE IS PROVIDING A STRONGER STEERING CURRENT AND IS TAKING KYLE TO 
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS ABOUT TO GET RATHER 
MORE COMPLICATED...HOWEVER.   THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER NORTHERLIES 
WILL TURN TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES.  THIS WOULD PUSH KYLE MORE TO 
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...BUT ONLY IF THE VORTEX WERE ABLE TO HOLD 
TOGETHER.  AT LOWER LEVELS...THE OVERALL STEERING COLLAPSES AS THE 
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE BUILDS WESTWARD.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS WITH FORECAST TRACKS ALL OVER THE DIAL. 
ONLY THE DEEP-LAYER BAM HAS A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.  I BELIEVE THE SHEAR WILL BE TOO STRONG TO TAKE 
THIS SOLUTION SERIOUSLY.  THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE 
SYSTEM GETS SHEARED OFF AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS LEFT 
BEHIND IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO 
REFLECTED BELOW.

WITH THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER WINDS ABOUT TO IMPINGE ON KYLE...THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND ROUGHLY IN ACCORD WITH THE 
SHIPS GUIDANCE.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR 
SHOULD LESSEN AND KYLE WOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 27.6N  59.4W    75 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 27.4N  60.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N  61.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 26.5N  61.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 26.5N  61.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 26.5N  61.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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