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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002
 
KYLE IS NOW A HURRICANE BASED ON A BANDING EYE...A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0...OR 65 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND ALSO
A 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.2...OR 69 KT. THE
ONLY REASON THE INTENSITY WAS NOT INCREASED TO 70 KT IS DUE THE EYE
HAVING BECOME CIRRUS COVERED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...
SUGGESTING THAT KYLE MAY BE PEAKING. IF THE CIRRUS THINS SOME DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN THE INTENSITY CAN BE INCREASED TO 70 KT ON 
THE NEXT ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LATEST SATELLITE
FIXES SHOW THAT KYLE HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...WHILE THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE IS STILL TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A MEAN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD AFTER
THAT WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE
LOCATED BETWEEN KYLE AND ISIDORE TO ITS WEST. THE RIDGE LOCATED
BETWEEN KYLE AND LILI LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED.
 
KYLE STILL HAS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS REMAINING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
BEGINS TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE. GIVEN THAT THE LATEST ODT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALREADY NEAR 70 KT...THIS INTENSITY SEEMS
WITHIN RANGE...ASSUMING THE EYE CLEARS OUT AGAIN.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 28.9N  55.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 28.4N  56.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  58.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 27.5N  58.4W    70 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 27.2N  58.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 26.5N  58.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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